- Before
- “Show me the low point, why, and what I do about it.” Gets a spreadsheet on Wednesday and asks questions nobody can answer quickly.
- Now
- Opens a checked forecast on Monday morning, opens any number to its source, asks what-ifs in plain words and signs with a reason code by 09:42.
One Monday, from bank files to a signed forecast
Monday 9 November 2026. Kestrel & Vane Distribution, the US distribution business of the Kestrel & Vane Group, opens the week with $22.4M across four banks, a $60.0M asset-based revolver and a $15.0M minimum cash policy. Its 13-week forecast, FC-2026-W46, is due to the lender on Tuesday at 17:00. Here is the morning, screen by screen, in the working solution.
- 0106:00
The forecast builds itself before anyone is in
The agentsThe Monday run starts on schedule. The cash position reader reads four prior-day files — Halberd BAI2, Northmere camt.053, Calloway MT940, Pinecrest BAI2 — classifies 2,318 bank lines and ties opening cash of $22,400,000 to the ledger, difference $0. The receipts forecaster re-fits payment timing for 24 named customers, the payments forecaster places 26 supplier runs and 6 payrolls, and the tax and debt scheduler places tax and debt service from signed sources only. Fourteen sources, 9,071 records, 6 min 48 s.
Receipts forecaster: “4 changed: Orchard +9 days, Sablewood +5, Corriedale +10, Yarrowdale +10.”
- 0206:07
A checker tests every number before a person sees it
Forecast checkerThe checker re-adds 13 weeks × 8 drivers and finds Tidewell Foodservice's $1.2M counted twice in week 3 — sales order SO-88213 and invoice INV-604417 — and holds it. It asks a question about Sablewood Contractors: $0.53M in week 6 rests on its controller's email promising payment by 15 December, while its last 90 days average 11 days late. Marcus Okafor, the cash manager, settles the hold at 08:51, removing the duplicate, and answers the question: keep the promise and leave it in week 6, or follow the history and move it to week 7.
“The checker does not hold this number; it asks you to choose.”
- 0309:12
The low point, why, and what to do about it
Helen Cho · Treasurer, North AmericaHelen opens the forecast as a fan: the expected closing balance, its range and the $15.0M minimum. Week 6, w/c 14 December, closes at $14.2M, range $11.9M to $16.5M, and four weeks fall below the minimum at the low end. Revolver availability is $36.5M of $60.0M. Under each week, driver chips show receipts, suppliers, payroll, tax and debt service, and a Needs-you list holds the four things waiting for her.
“Closes $0.8M below the minimum. Two drivers: Tax −$6.1M, the federal estimated payment on Tue 15 Dec, and slower receipts.”
- 04One click
The tax chip opens to the signed workbook
Tax and debt schedulerWeek 6's −$6,100,000 is the US federal estimated tax, Q4 instalment, due Tue 15 December. The drawer shows the record, how it was built, the checker's verdict and its history, and quotes the source: Tax provision workbook FY26 v3, tab “Q4 estimates”, signed by Rachel Moreno, Tax Director, on Fri 6 November at 16:40. Confidence 0.99, checked.
The tax and debt scheduler never estimates tax itself: it uses the number Tax signed.
- 05Week 6 receipts
Orchard Retail now pays 21 days late, not 12
Receipts forecasterOrchard Retail, Net 45, carries $11.84M of open receivables. Remittance notes since 28 August say “paid in month-end run”, so its average over the last 90 days is 21 days late against 12 last year. Three invoices — INV-603881 for $1,240,000 due 4 Dec, INV-603902 and INV-603957 for $1,180,000 each — land in week 8, not week 6. One click drafts a request to Aisha Bello, the credit manager, to confirm Orchard's payment date by Fri 13 November.
“The agent drafts the request; the credit team decides whether and how to contact Orchard. No message goes to the customer from here.”
- 06Last week
Last week's gap, explained by driver
Variance explainerLast week's forecast for 6 November was $23.10M; actual cash was $22.40M, a gap of −$0.70M, −3.0% against a ±5% tolerance. Orchard paid $1.92M nine days late, freight carriers billed $0.83M over their orders, Tidewell paid $1.69M early for a 1% discount and a $0.38M state tax refund came early; $0.02M of bank timing is left unexplained. Three learnings wait for Marcus: Orchard from 12 to 21 days late, a 6.2% freight allowance, Tidewell 6 days early.
“The forecast never changes its own method. A learning applies from the next run once the cash manager or treasurer accepts it, and the decision is logged.”
- 07She asks
“What if Orchard Retail pays on time?”
Helen Cho · Treasurer, North AmericaHelen asks in plain words. The answer is drawn on the same fan in violet: if Orchard pays its three December invoices on time, week 6 closes at $17.8M instead of $14.2M, and the low point moves to week 9 at $16.3M. Then the caution, with its sources — Orchard's open invoices and its 14 remittances since 28 August.
“Orchard has paid 21 days late on average for 90 days, so I would not plan on it: the low end of week 6 would still be $15.5M, close to the line.”
- 08A plan
The smallest draw that keeps the low end above $15M
Scenario and funding plannerShe asks for a funding plan. FP-W46-1 draws $5.0M on Thu 10 December, before the tax payment, and repays $2.0M on Mon 11 January and $3.0M on Mon 1 February. With it the low point is $19.2M in week 6, the lowest P10 is $16.9M and availability never falls below $31.5M, far from the $7.5M springing covenant trigger. Estimated interest is $39.6K at 6.4% all-in, and the plan is within her $10.0M authority.
“Agents never draw or repay. The draw request goes to Halberd Commercial Bank only after you approve the forecast with this plan, and the cash manager releases it in the bank portal.”
- 09One more test
Stress it: the largest customer pays 30 days late
Helen Cho · Treasurer, North AmericaBefore she signs, Helen runs a prepared shock. If Orchard's receipts all arrive four weeks later, the low point falls to $10.0M in week 6, six weeks fall below the minimum on the expected line and nine at the low end, and the funding need is $8.0M. The $8.0M would be drawn on the revolver, with $36.5M available. She can save a scenario and compare up to two on the forecast.
- 10Signed · 09:42
Approved with the funding plan, pack sent
Helen Cho · Treasurer, North AmericaSign-off lists every check: opening cash tied, every week re-added, the hold settled by Marcus, sources current, every week above $15.0M with the plan, availability at least $31.5M. Helen chooses A2 · Approve with funding plan, writes a note to the record and signs. Version v3 is sealed and the pack goes to Daniel Reyes, CFO, to Priya Nandakumar in FP&A and to Halberd Commercial Bank in its 13-week format — more than a day before the lender's Tuesday 17:00 deadline.
“Approved by Helen Cho, Treasurer · A2 Approve with funding plan · Mon 9 Nov 09:42 · Version v3 sealed · pack delivered to 3 recipients.”