Virtual power plant software that forecasts who will answer, keeps every owner's limit and counts only confirmed megawatts
Batteries, EVs and thermostats become capacity that delivers the megawatts it promised.
See one case, screen by screen ↓A virtual power plant (VPP) is the home batteries, smart thermostats, EV chargers and pumps that customers and the utility already own, called together as one resource when the grid needs megawatts at the peak. The devices sit in several device-maker clouds and in pump SCADA, so when the control room calls, the operator adds up nameplate kilowatts across portals. Nameplate does not say what will answer: thermostat owners override, EVs answer only if they are plugged in and charging, and batteries are only worth what is above each owner's backup reserve.
Getting it wrong costs twice. A plant that under-delivers loses the resource planner's trust, so the megawatts are not counted and the utility buys a peaker instead. A plant that ignores a limit — a battery drained before a storm, a hot home on the medical list, a nurse's car not charged for the morning shift — becomes an opt-out, a complaint or a news story. After the season, delivered MW against a baseline, incentives and value against a peaker are rebuilt in spreadsheets, so the business case is argued, not shown.
Estimated split for one evening event, from day-ahead preparation to a settled event report, in hours, by hand and with the solution.
Six specialist agents protect, forecast, plan and verify every dispatch; the VPP operator decides and signs.
Lumina Utilities runs Lumina Flex: 38,498 enrolled home batteries, smart thermostats and EV chargers from four device makers, plus four Lumina Water pump stations. On Tuesday 13 October 2026 it is 36 °C in Westmere. Here is event E26-023, screen by screen, in the working solution.
Lumina Grid Control asks for 25.0 MW from 17:00 to 19:00. The evening peak is forecast at 4,812 MW against 4,790 MW available after the Harlow Ridge unit trip at 15:55, and Westmere transformer WM-T2 is forecast at 96 % at 18:00. The dispatch screen shows the call as a dashed line on a megawatt column, and the forecast stacked beneath it before anything is sent.
“Twenty-five megawatts at five, and I need to be able to count on it.” · Confirm by 16:59
The guard checks all 38,498 devices against the limits their owners set and the programme's rules. 672 batteries would reach their backup reserve before 19:00, 318 homes are on the medical priority list, 1,904 thermostats rest after two event days, 1,620 customers opted out of today, 82 cars leave before 19:30 and 36 are below 40 % charge. Northgate's pumps are held: the reservoir is at 63 % against a 62 % floor.
“Agents cannot change a limit. Only the owner can, in the Lumina app.”
14 Kestrel Hill Road has a battery, a thermostat and an EV, with a reserve of 40 %, comfort +2 °C and the car ready by 07:00. The battery gives 3.2 kW, from 71 % to a forecast 46 % at 19:00; the thermostat goes from 24 to 26 °C; the car pauses until 19:00. Down the list, the Haddon household raised its reserve to 80 % for the storm warning, so its battery at 84 % is not called.
“Only the owner can change this limit, in the Lumina app.”
The forecaster expects 26.1 MW, range 24.9–27.3, with a 92 % chance of covering 25.0 MW — batteries 12.9 MW from state of charge and each owner's reserve, thermostats 7.0 MW from each home's override habit, EV chargers 4.7 MW from what is charging, pumps 1.5 MW. The planner calls 17,125 devices, keeps 610 batteries on standby and holds 140 batteries on feeder SP-03 to home load only, because voltage is at 1.048 pu.
Nothing has been sent. Signals go to 17,125 devices when Elena signs.
Elena reviews the call, the devices called, the forecast, the held-back devices and the grid limits on one screen, and signs: “I approve dispatch of event E26-023 as planned.” The planner sends signals to the Arvane and Tidewell battery clouds, the Corrin thermostat cloud, the Plugwell charging network and three pump stations. By T+0:12, 2,914 batteries are discharging and 610 EV chargers have paused.
“Signing sends the signals now. Any device whose owner changes a limit during the window is released at once. Above 40 MW, Marcus Adeyemi co-signs.”
The verifier confirms each device from device and meter telemetry and lights it on the field — one dot for 50 devices. The stack crosses 25.0 MW at T+1:08 and holds 26.4 MW at T+1:30: batteries 13.2, thermostats 7.1, EV chargers 4.6, pumps 1.5. 16,597 of 17,125 devices answered; 528 gave no response, inside the forecast margin.
“26.4 MW holding — 105.6 % of the call, 0 customer limits overridden”
Overrides take some thermostats out and 410 batteries reach their owners' reserves after 18:20, so the plan releases the 610 standby batteries at 18:20 and the forecast at 18:45 stays at 25.6 MW. The report shows 0 limits overridden and 0 complaints. Incentives due are estimated at $38,397 — 26.4 MWh from batteries at $1.00 per kWh, 10,812 thermostats held at $1.00, 1,394 EVs paused at $0.85. Elena queues them for Hannah Okoye to approve when the event ends at 19:00.
“Never pays — the programme manager approves.”
The 7-day forecast puts Thursday 15 October at 38 °C, call very likely, and 23.6 MW at P50 — 1.4 MW under the 25.0 MW commitment, because 3,980 thermostats called on Tuesday and Wednesday rest on Thursday. The forecaster proposes pre-charging 4,900 batteries to 100 % from midday solar (+1.6 MW) and refilling Northgate to 80 % overnight (+0.4 MW): 25.6 MW, with owners' reserves unchanged.
“Thursday goes from 23.6 to 25.6 MW at P50.”
Across 23 events the VPP delivered an average 104.1 % of the call. Tomás counts 41 MW of dependable capacity in the 2026 plan: a new gas peaker would cost $128 per kW-year, a utility-scale battery $90, Lumina Flex $54 — incentives $31, device connections $14, programme $9. On 41 MW that is $5.25M for a peaker against $2.21M for the VPP: $3.03M a year avoided.
“I can only count megawatts I can prove.”
To reach the 60.0 MW target the plan needs +3,850 batteries, +4,000 thermostats, +5,000 managed EV chargers and 2 more pump stations. Westmere comes first: a kW there is worth 1.8×, because it defers a $14M upgrade of transformer WM-T2, forecast at 96 %. The planner drafts four campaigns with their MW and cost, such as a $500 battery bonus for 1,400 Westmere solar homes, +4.3 MW for $700K, each sent to Hannah or Tomás to approve.
“Proposes only. Never contacts customers without approval.”
The same evening call, seen by the four people who own it — what it took before, and what it takes now.
Six specialist agents protect, forecast, plan and verify every dispatch; the VPP operator decides and signs.
Before each dispatch, holds back any device whose owner's limit would be broken in the window — backup reserve, comfort offset and indoor ceiling, medical priority list, rest days, opt-outs, EV ready-by and minimum charge — and the reservoir floor. During the event, releases any device approaching its limit.
Estimates, device by device, the chance it answers a call and its kW for the window, from weather, state of charge, plug-in history and each home's override habit, and rolls it up to MW per resource with P10, P50 and P90.
From the eligible devices and the forecast, selects a set whose P10 covers the call, holds 10 % of eligible batteries on standby, plans standby releases through the window and presents the plan for the operator's signature.
Every 2 seconds during an event, reads device and meter telemetry, confirms each response, computes delivered MW, flags non-responders and asks the planner for standby when the forecast drops under the call.
After each event, computes delivered energy per device against its 10-day baseline, incentives due at the programme's rates, peak energy avoided and the season ledger against the resource-plan cost of a peaker.
Compares dependable MW with the plan target, ranks zones by the value of a kW from grid constraints and growth, and proposes enrolment targets and campaigns with their MW and cost.
Signs each dispatch; supervisor co-signs above 40 MW. The agents propose; a named person decides.
Ask about the fleet, a dispatch, a customer's limits or the value — or say what to change. Answers point to the telemetry, the limits and the plan behind them.
Will we hold 25 MW until 19:00?
Yes, at 25.6 MW at 18:45 — with the standby release. Thermostat overrides are forecast to take 0.8 MW by 19:00, in line with the 12.9 % habit of these homes, and 410 batteries reach their owners' reserves after 18:20. The plan releases the 610 standby batteries at 18:20.
Why were 672 batteries held back?
Each would have reached its owner's backup reserve before 19:00. Most set 50 % or more; the Haddon household in Oakmoor raised its reserve to 80 % yesterday after the storm warning, at 84 % charge. They are not called, and the reserve is never changed.
Get Thursday back above 25 MW
Thursday is forecast at 23.6 MW: 3,980 thermostats rest after two event days, and Northgate may stay under its reservoir floor. Two changes bring it to 25.6 MW without touching any customer limit: pre-charge 4,900 batteries to 100 % from midday solar (+1.6 MW), and refill Northgate overnight (+0.4 MW). Plan applied; Lumina Water notified.
What does this plant cost against a peaker?
$54 per kW-year against $128 for a new gas peaker — 42 %. On the 41.0 MW counted in the resource plan that avoids $3.03M a year. Incentives are the largest part: $31 of the $54. Published studies put VPPs at about 40–60 % of a peaker or battery.
13 screens from the working solution, on its sample data. Pick one to see it large.
When to dispatch, how much standby to keep, how customers are protected and who signs are settings, chosen by the utility.
| Setting | Default | Choose from |
|---|---|---|
| Dispatch only when the forecast covers the call | 90 % or more | 85 % or more · 90 % or more · 95 % or more — chance that delivered MW reach the call |
| Standby group | 10 % of eligible batteries | 5 % · 10 % · 15 % — kept back to replace devices that drop out |
| Count delivered megawatts from | Device and meter telemetry | Device and meter telemetry · Meter telemetry only — unconfirmed devices are never counted |
| Battery backup reserve | Owner's setting · floor 20 % | Owner's setting · floor 20 % · Owner's setting · floor 30 % |
| Rest after event days in a row | After 2 days | After 2 days · After 3 days — added after event E26-016 |
| EV chargers | Minimum 40 % charge | Minimum 40 % · Minimum 50 % charge — ready-by time always honoured |
| Reservoir floor for pump shifting | 62 % | 60 % · 62 % · 65 % — Lumina Water keeps the reservoir above it through the window |
| Co-sign dispatches above 40 MW | Marcus Adeyemi | Marcus Adeyemi · Joanna Pike — control-room shift supervisor |
Every figure is labelled: a target the solution is built to, an estimate, a typical published result, or a proven one.
“demo” = seen in the working solution, on its sample fleet and events · “target” = the design goal, measured in the live solution · “estimated” = our estimate · “typical” = published figures (Brattle, Real Reliability: The Value of Virtual Power, 2023 — VPP net cost about 40–60 % of a gas peaker or utility battery; US DOE, Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Virtual Power Plants, 2023 — 80–160 GW by 2030, 10–20 % of peak; Energy Policy, 2021 — 12.9 % thermostat override rate). Lumina Utilities, Lumina Flex, the people, households, places, device makers and records named on this page are fictional — characters and sample data in the working solution.
Software that turns customer batteries, smart thermostats, EV chargers and pump stations into capacity the control room can call. Virtual Power Plant Management puts the whole fleet on one screen, forecasts how many devices will answer, holds back every device whose owner's limit would be broken, dispatches the rest once the VPP operator signs, and confirms each response from telemetry.
The response forecaster estimates, device by device, the chance it answers and its kW for the window, from weather, state of charge, plug-in history and each home's override habit. It rolls that up to megawatts per resource with P10, P50 and P90 — 26.1 MW, range 24.9–27.3, with a 92 % chance of covering the 25 MW call in the sample event. It never counts nameplate as capacity.
No. The customer limits guard holds back any battery that would reach its owner's backup reserve, and never calls a home on the medical priority list. It also keeps comfort limits, rest days, opt-outs, EV ready-by times and minimum charge. In the sample event it held back 3,013 devices and overrode none.
The telemetry verifier counts only devices confirmed by device and meter telemetry, reading them every 2 seconds during an event. After the event, delivered energy is measured against each home's 10-day baseline, and the event report can be exported with per-device evidence.
The value and settlement analyst keeps a ledger of the cost of a kilowatt of peak capacity a year. In the sample season Lumina Flex costs $54 per kW-year against $128 for a new gas peaker — 42 %, or $3.03M a year avoided on 41 MW — and the ledger downloads for the capacity filing.
In the working solution: home battery clouds over IEEE 2030.5 and OpenADR 2.0b, a thermostat cloud over OpenADR 2.0b, an EV charging network over OCPP 2.0.1, and water pump stations over DNP3, with smart meter telemetry to confirm each response.
Yes. Nothing is sent until the VPP operator signs, and above 40 MW the control-room supervisor co-signs. Agents never change a customer's limit, never pay incentives and never contact customers: the programme manager approves incentives and campaigns, and the resource planner approves the megawatts counted in the plan.
The Agentic Solution Engine builds and deploys it from your requirements and documents — your programme rules, incentive rates, device connections and a sample of past events — and it goes live once every quality gate has passed. We will walk you through it on your own fleet first.
Complete or deficient in minutes, not days.
1-min demoUtility NOC Application ProcessingEvery NOC checked against every asset buffer, issued inside 2 working days.
1-min demoElectrical Drawing ApprovalClause-cited comments on day one, not after resubmission.
1-min demoWe'll run Virtual Power Plant Management on a sample of your own enrolled devices and past events.